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The proposed Advanced Application, CONOPS, delivers predictions for mosquito abundance and the associated human risk of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. By leveraging satellite-derived EO data, census data, and historical entomological and epidemiological records, it integrates two machine learning models: an entomological model (MAMOTH) and an epidemiological model (DVI). These models generate predictions at a high spatial resolution of 2x2 km and offer flexibility with monthly or custom temporal scales, providing localized and timely insights. The CONOPS application delivers predictions from May to December of each year, covering the peak period of the mosquitos.
End users can access pre-trained models to produce predictions for NUTS3 or NUTS2 regions across the EU, or request tailored solutions for specific areas worldwide, ensuring alignment with their unique priorities. To enhance transparency and foster trust, the models also include feature importance analyses, identifying the key factors driving the predictions. This innovative application empowers decision-makers with actionable intelligence to effectively mitigate disease risks, support the control and prevention of mosquito-borne diseases, and tackle the growing threat posed by mosquitoes and mosquito-borne illnesses intensified by climate change. It should be noted that access to the CONOPS Application will be moderated, granted only to validated registered users from specific categories (e.g., public authorities, academia, SMEs, third-country authorities, and DestinE staff/contractors), as the outputs of these models requires a respective expertise and background.
The CONOPS advanced application has been designed with sustainability at its core. Its unique focus on the intersection of Earth Observation (EO) and epidemics, combined with a freemium model offering both free and paid tiers, ensures broad accessibility. Additionally, the well-structured long-term operational plan, supported by a clearly defined cost and pricing model, guarantees the application's sustainability while enhancing the overall attractiveness of the DestinE ecosystem.
CONOPS builts on an already existing, operational and mature system, the EYWA (Early Warning System for Mosquito-borne Diseases). EYWA is an internationally recognized early warning system, awarded the prestigious 1st European Innovation Council (EIC) Horizon Prize on Early Warning for Epidemics in recognition of its groundbreaking approach to disease prevention.